Since 2008, when the state blew the horn of the new medical reform, the decade that China\'s health industry has gone through is a decade of drastic changes in the industrial environment and a decade in which the traditional model is coming to an end.
In 2017, coincining with the tenth year of the XIPU Conference, the theme of the conference is "Building a blueprint - Focusing on the market awakening of demand". Invited and gathered various elites including leaders of relevant government departments such as the Medical Reform Office of The State Council, the Ministry of Commerce, the National Health and Family Planning Commission, the Department of Commerce of Hainan Province, the Health and Family Planning Commission, the Food and Drug Administration, experts of the medical reform Advisory Committee, the top pharmaceutical entrepreneurs in the country, decision makers of health management and commercial insurance institutions, and investors in the securities and financial investment industry. Jointly sort out the context of the industry in the past ten years, explore the development of the industry in the new decade, and build a new blueprint for the industry.
Five major changes in the industry in ten years
On the morning of August 17, Wu Han, President of Zhongkang Information, made a general introduction on the theme and discussion direction of the 2017 Xipu Conference before the opening ceremony. He pointed out that from 2008, the state sounded the horn of the new medical reform, China\'s health industry has gone through a complete decade, this decade is not only a decade of drastic changes in the industrial environment, but also a decade of the end of the traditional model, which means that the first year of the new ecological health industry in China officially opened!
By combing through the ten years of development of the industry, Zhongkang Information summarized five important industrial change marks.
First, the health industry has achieved rapid growth under the promotion of policy-oriented dividends, but the growth rate has returned rationally; The market position of the retail industry has been rapidly improved and has become a mainstream force in the industry.
Wu Han introduced that from the 17th National Congress in 2007 to clarify the guiding principles of medical reform to the formal promotion of the new medical reform, the industry has entered a new stage of development, although the process has experienced the global financial crisis, but the CMH monitoring data show that the industry\'s resilience makes us still obtain a compound growth rate of 15%. The size of the terminal market increased from 483.5 billion at the beginning of the period to 1,490.9 billion last year, during which there was a 20% high growth mainly driven by policy dividends, and there was a rational return of 7%-8% at the end of the period. It is worth mentioning that, according to CMH data, the retail terminal market size increased to 337.7 billion yuan in 2016, rising to become an important force in the industry. But at the same time, CMH forecast pointed out that in 2017, the growth rate of terminal drug market will further fall to 5.8%.
Second, the Internet and big data continue to penetrate the health industry.
With the advantages of the Internet and big data technology, technology giants began to enter the health field, and the traditional industry service providers to snatch consumers, so that the future development trajectory of the industry has more uncertain factors.
Third, the brutal growth of the industry has been unsustainable, compliance, innovation, and adaptation to the new ecology will be the way to survive in the future.
Zhongkang information analysis pointed out that the ten years of new medical reform has made the entire industry experience a roller coaster, in the early stage of strong grass-roots investment, the market is booming, obtaining more than 17% drug growth for five consecutive years, and even reaching 20% growth rate in 2010. However, as the medical reform has entered the stage of cost control and efficiency improvement, especially in the past two years, the medical reform has entered the deep water area, and the three-dimensional New Deal has made the industry feel "cold in winter", and the annual growth rate has been hovering in the single digits since 2015. After joining ICH and implementing DRG, Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises will face greater challenges.
Fourth, the structure of drug use changes, and the industrial margin expands.
On the one hand, the change of population structure and disease spectrum has changed the structure of drug use in China, the rapid growth of anti-tumor drugs and become the focus of enterprises to seek after, the total scale of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs instead of anti-infective drugs jumped to the first place, pregnant women and children\'s categories picked up the growth trend, the level of drug use in counties and towns has improved, and the gap between urban and rural areas has narrowed. On the other hand, consumers\' health needs are increasingly diversified and personalized, and simple "medicine" and "medicine" have been difficult to fully meet the needs, and the health industry has replaced the pharmaceutical industry to become a more accurate generalization of the industry, and the industrial margin has expanded. And as information becomes more transparent and technology evolves, consumer sovereignty continues to grow.
Fifth, capital has become a powerful force for industrial pattern change.
With the completion of China\'s multi-level capital market system, as well as capital\'s favor for healthy industries, capital tools are widely used in the industry to optimize the allocation of industrial resources, improve industrial concentration, promote industrial innovation, and change the industrial structure.
Five trends in the future industrial blueprint
If the traditional model has come to an end, how can the future industry find the direction and build the industrial blueprint? This is also the core issue of the 2017 Sipu Conference.
According to the analysis of Zhongkang Information, with the key policies of the new medical reform entering the landing assessment, the strengthening of the power of capital to change the industrial structure, the full penetration of technological innovation, and the improvement of the speed of cross-border integration, 2017 is the watershed of industrial development, and the future will show five trends:
[Trend 1] The differentiation of industrial dominance and the gradual formation of the "dual market" structure
With the change of medical insurance payment method, the growth of commercial insurance power, the enhancement of the right to speak driven by the multi-point practice of doctors, the increase of the proportion of the middle class, the improvement of information transparency, and the empowerment brought by technology, the dominance of the industry will be differentiated to consumers. Consumer advocates - commercial insurers and related health providers - will have more say and become a dominant force. This force will lead to the formation of a "dual market" structure:
One is a basic market dominated by the government, with a relatively stable structure and broad coverage. One is an active consumer market represented by commercial insurance and health management institutions to meet the diversified needs of middle and high income groups.
The analysis of Zhongkang information pointed out that the competition mode of different markets is very different, and it is necessary for pharmaceutical companies to combine their own characteristics and do a good job of positioning.
[Trend 2] Health industry growth pole shift
In the past, the pharmaceutical market has been an important growth pole for the industry due to relatively simple demand and the need to support medicine. With the diversification of health needs, the reform of the system of supporting medicine with drugs, and the change of payment methods, the drug market will maintain a medium-low growth level for a long time, and enterprises lacking core competitiveness will be quickly crowded out of the market. The medical and health services market will become the main contributor to the growth of the health industry, and the industry growth pole will shift from products to services.
[Trend 3] Industrial service supply chain structure changes
With the development of technology, the change of demand pattern and the evolution of social organization form, a supply chain structure that combines continuous shortening of distance from consumers, specialized division of labor and systematic services will gradually take shape. This puts forward higher requirements for the brand building and accurate positioning of enterprises or various service agencies; At the same time, the market also has a strong demand for service providers with professional link capabilities in order to better coordinate the supply resources of various professional institutions and systematically meet the health needs of consumers.
[Trend 4] Data application ability will become a necessary basic ability for enterprise development
Data will have a wider range of application scenarios in the health industry, including corporate decision-making, medical services, drug research and development and production, circulation and use, payment and other links will be covered. At the same time, regarding data, there is a concept that needs to be changed: data is energy, but Zhongkang information believes that it must be emphasized that data is not oil, it is solar energy, can not be monopolized, only the application is valuable. It is an inevitable trend for data to be shared and information silos to be broken.
[Trend 5] The wide application of Internet technology and artificial intelligence
The extensive application of the Internet in the medical process and the value created by artificial intelligence in the field of medical treatment and health management will fully liberate the productivity of health service providers represented by doctors, and more needs can be met, which will also become the driving force for expanding the market while improving efficiency.
(Information source: Sipu)